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Survey: Elektabilitas PDIP Turun, Gerindra Stabil

Hasil survei Indikator Politik Indonesia menempatkan PDIP di urutan teratas elektabilitas partai politik. Partai di bawah pimpinan Megawati Soekarnoputri itu meraih elektabilitas sebesar 22,9 persen.

Meski begitu, Direktur Eksekutif Indikator Politik Indonesia Burhanuddin Muhtadi mengatakan, elektabilitas PDIP mengalami penurunan dibandingkan Maret 2018. Pada Maret, PDIP meraih elektabilitas 28 persen.

"PDIP mengalami penurunan, Golkar naik. Saya menduga coattail effect dari Joko Widodo (Jokowi) beralih ke Golkar," kata dia di kantor Indikator Politik Indonesia, Cikini, Jakarta Pusat, Rabu (26/9).

Menurut dia, itu merupakan hal yang wajar. Pasalnya, Jokowi bukanlah pimpinan PDIP sehingga meskipun terasosiasi dengan partai, coattail effect yang dihasilkan dapat tersebar ke partai pendukung lainnya.

Golkar sendiri meraih elektabilitas 11,4 persen, meningkat dibandingkan Maret 2018 yang hanya 11 persen. Sementara, Gerindra cenderung stabil dengan elektabilitas 10,7 persen.

Burhan mengatakan, Gerindra memiliki keuntungan lantaran calon presiden dan wakil presiden didominasi oleh partai bernomor urut 02 itu. "Dugaan saya coattail effect Prabowo dimonopoli Gerindra. Gerindra menang banyak," kata dia.

Menurut dia, selisih antara Golkar dan Gerindra masih sangat rapat, yaitu 0,7 persen. Artinya, selisih itu masih dalam kadar margin of error survei sebesar 2,9 persen. Karena itu, ia menilai persaingan antara Golkar dan Gerindra akan sangat ketat dalam Pemilihan Anggota Legistlatif (Pileg) 2019.

Sementara di urutan berikutnya, Partai Demokrat meraih 6,8 persen, PKB 6,2 persen, PKS 4 persen, PPP 3,7 persen, Nasdem 3,4 persen, Perindo 2,5 persen, dan PAN 2 persen. Sisanya di bawah angka satu persen.

Menurut dia, ada kemungkinan PPP, Nasdem, Perindo, dan PAN tidak lolos ambang batas parlemen sebesar 4 persen. Namun, elektabilitas itu masih bisa ditambah maupun dikurangi margin of error survei. Selain itu, masih ada 24,7 persen responden yang belum menentukan pilihan.

Ia juga mengingatkan, survei Indikator belum memakai simulasi kertas suara. Menurut dia, nama-nama caleg di kertas suara sangat mungkin untuk membawa suara bagi partai.

"Karena kalau sudah memasukkan nama caleg, variabel ini bisa berubah. Harusnya pakai surat suara dan dilakukan di dapil," kata dia. (ROL)

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